Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro has suggested that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is unlikely to launch a 2028 presidential bid against Vice President JD Vance, citing Rubio’s perceived risk aversion. In a podcast interview released Wednesday, Shapiro outlined potential scenarios for Rubio, arguing that either outcome—winning or losing—would leave him politically diminished. He also speculated that Vance would be the more likely Republican nominee in such a contest.
Neither Rubio nor Vance has publicly confirmed plans to run in 2028, though President Trump has previously referred to them as a potential "dream team" on a presidential ticket. Trump stated in May that he believed the two could complement each other in a future campaign, though he did not specify which role each would assume. Vance has publicly dismissed reports of tension with Rubio, calling him a "great Secretary of State" and a "dear friend."
Tucker Carlson’s potential 2028 candidacy has also emerged as a topic of speculation. Despite Carlson stating he has no intention of running, allies have encouraged him to enter the race, framing him as a leader of the pro-MAGA but anti-Trump faction within the Republican Party. On August 5, Carlson outlined a 10-point platform for a potential third-party effort during an episode of his podcast, which has since garnered over 1.5 million views on X and nearly 700,000 views on YouTube. The event followed a gathering at his Maine cabin with figures including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), and former Trump administration aide Joe Kent, all of whom urged Carlson to run.
Carlson has not responded to requests for comment regarding a potential bid, but American Conservative executive director Curt Mills has endorsed the idea. Some analysts suggest Carlson’s candidacy would be more likely if Rubio, known for his foreign policy hawkishness, enters the race, while others argue it would be unlikely if Trump backs Vance, who has been reported as skeptical of the Iran war.
Potential GOP Field Dynamics
The evolving dynamics within the Republican Party have prompted discussions about the viability of various 2028 contenders. Shapiro’s analysis reflects broader conservative concerns about Rubio’s electoral prospects, emphasizing the risks of a high-stakes primary battle. Meanwhile, Carlson’s potential involvement introduces a wildcard scenario, with some allies positioning him as a unifying figure for factions critical of Trump’s leadership while still aligned with MAGA principles.
Vance has maintained a public stance of unity with Rubio, despite ongoing speculation about internal Republican divisions. His comments about Rubio’s friendship and shared focus on governance underscore the delicate balance within the party as it prepares for the next election cycle. Trump’s earlier remarks about a Rubio-Vance ticket have added another layer of intrigue, though neither individual has addressed the possibility directly.
Key Takeaways
- Ben Shapiro predicts Rubio is unlikely to run against Vance in 2028 due to perceived political risks.
- Tucker Carlson remains a speculative but influential figure, with allies pushing for a potential third-party bid.
- Neither Rubio nor Vance has confirmed 2028 plans, though Trump has mused about their compatibility as a ticket.
- Vance has publicly dismissed tensions with Rubio, emphasizing their close relationship.