The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose sharply to 7.45% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily, marking the highest level in nearly two years. The increase followed a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, which drove lenders to re-survey rates midday and report an even higher average.
The 19-basis-point jump from Wednesday’s 7.26% was the largest single-day increase since April 2025, reflecting heightened volatility in bond markets. Mortgage News Daily noted that rates had first crossed 7% on September 10, coinciding with inflation reports that heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Freddie Mac, which releases weekly averages, reported the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03% for the week ending Thursday, up from 6.30% a year ago. The discrepancy between daily and weekly data stems from timing differences in survey collection, with Freddie Mac’s figure reflecting a weekly average rather than a real-time snapshot.
Economic and geopolitical factors cited by analysts include stronger-than-expected economic data, rising oil prices, and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has contributed to inflationary pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% on Thursday—the highest level in two decades—further amplifying mortgage rate volatility.
Experts offered mixed outlooks on future movements. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel stated that rates are "far more likely to go up than down" by year’s end, while Zillow Home Loans senior economist Kara Ng warned that recent bond market volatility "introduces real upside risk to mortgage rates." Conversely, Zillow’s own forecast suggests rates could dip to 6.7% in the coming months.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 30-year fixed rate of 7.12% for the week ending September 18, citing higher inflation, tighter monetary policy expectations, and ballooning federal debt as key drivers. The MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, Joel Kan, emphasized that mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which has spiked in response to perceived economic risks.
For prospective homebuyers, the surge in rates compounds affordability challenges, with borrowing costs now more than 2 percentage points higher than the sub-5% levels seen in late February. The timing coincides with heightened political scrutiny ahead of the November midterm elections, where economic concerns—including housing affordability—have become a central issue for voters.