Regulators are likely to investigate a surge in trading activity that preceded President Donald Trump's social media post about U.S.-Iran talks, according to former SEC chair Jay Clayton. The unusual trading volume in S&P 500 futures and oil markets occurred around 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, roughly 15 minutes before Trump's announcement that halted planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
Clayton, now the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, stated that authorities would reconstruct the activity and identify participants across markets. He noted that regulators have the most visibility in cash equities, where trading data allows for detailed analysis, but surveillance in futures and commodities markets can be more complex.
The SEC declined to comment. Meanwhile, reports suggest that traders may have made tens of millions of dollars from bets placed just before Trump's post, which reversed market trends. Oil prices fell 10% and the S&P 500 rose 2% after the announcement. Iran's parliamentary speaker later denied any negotiations were underway, calling Trump's claims an attempt to manipulate financial markets.
Critics, including U.S. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, have raised allegations of insider trading, questioning whether Trump, a family member, or a White House staffer was involved. The trading activity follows previous concerns about insider trading around Trump's military actions and tariff policies.